Smart People Let Their Beliefs Triumph Over Data
Are you smart enough to recognize your bias?
If you have been following my posts, you have seen me say, “Let me control your data and I will control your thinking.” Well maybe I am wrong.
I watched “On These Questions Smarter People Do Worse”. It presents an interesting dilemma for my statement. It seems that people who have a better understanding of statistical analysis actually do worse when applying their ability to politics.
People were given a “numeracy” score by rating them on a statistical test. Then they were given questions regarding politics to see if they would apply their abilities when the data did not support their political leanings. To put it simply, would people change their minds if the data did not support their positions. The answer seems to be no.
For example, Republicans were shown fake data showing that gun control reduced crime. They refused to believe the data. They would look for alternative explanations. Similarly, Democrats would not change their minds if the data showed that gun control increased crime.
Are we simply seeing confirmation bias? According to encyclopedia Briticanna, confirmation bias is defined as “people’s tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with their existing beliefs.”
Confirmation bias works for you if you merely want to fit in with a group of peers. If you are a seeker of truth, you must be vigilant, or confirmation bias will take you off in a direction that supports what you already know, and you will fail to grow and find truth. That is why you must constantly question your beliefs.
Another way to make progress is to stop talking in terms of political division. Terms such as climate change and gun control are politically charged. Use of those terms take us into confirmation bias. Using questions like “How do we clean up the planet? Or, how do we reduce violence?” can open our minds to new possibilities.
Changing what we talk about is one reason I favor Pentanomics. It gives us a different way of thinking about our problems. Pentanomics thinks in terms of minimizing harm in five different ways simultaneously. Negotiation is preferred. Testing is the way to make decisions. Imagine deciding on the problem. Agreeing on desirable changes in conditions. Trying something. Check to see if the conditions improved. Then tweaking for continuous improvement.
You can be part of the process. You must be willing to change. Look for data that does not support your beliefs. Self-growth occurs when we pursue truth.